“The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”robotThe Industrial Development Plan proposes that by 2025, China will form a batch of breakthroughs in the core technology of Robots and high-end products, the comprehensive indicators of the whole machine will reach the international advanced level, and the performance and reliability of key components will reach the international level of similar products. The average annual growth rate of the operating income of the robot industry exceeds 20%; 3-5 Industrial clusters with international influence will be established; the density of manufacturing robots will double.
With the advancement of technology, the degree of intelligence of robots continues to increase, and the future market space is also gradually released, penetrating into thousands of industries, not to mention the widely used manufacturing industry, even Nissan’s daily life can see robots from time to time The accelerated application of robots, such as meal delivery robots and cleaning robots, has become an inevitable trend in future development.
Having said that, what problems will the Robot Industry encounter in this development process? What opportunities do you have? What is the law of its development? These are all issues worthy of discussion, and securities institutions are undoubtedly one of the groups that are most sensitive to the development trend of an industry. Let’s take a look today, the recent research and judgment made by five securities institutions on the development of robots.
CITIC Securities stated that recently, the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission issued the first batch of “Shanghaismart robotRecommended Catalog of Benchmarking Enterprises and Application Scenarios”, which proposes to strive to build 10 industry-leading robot head brands and a robot-related industry scale of 100 billion yuan by 2025, which is expected to promote the rapid development of the robot industry and the large-scale implementation of multiple scenarios. From the central government to the local government, policies continue to increase, and the robot industry has entered a period of acceleration. In the future, more local governments may respond positively and launch a series of related support measures for the robot industry.
At the same time, CITIC Securities pointed out that the entry of Tesla robots has stimulated the vitality of the robot industry market. Compared with humanoid robots, service-type pan-humanoid robots have the advantages of low cost, strong stability, and clear application scenarios. It is expected that they will be prioritized for commercialization in the future. landing.
Similar to smartphones, robots will become the next phenomenal consumer electronics product, driving the rapid development of the upstream, midstream and downstream industries represented by servo systems, body manufacturing, and complete machine brands. Referring to the development history of smartphones, the robot industry is currently in its early stages of development. It is predicted that the robot industry will have a development trend of “hardware first” in the future, and a mature foundry model may be formed in the middle and late stages.
Among them, core components such as servo systems are of great importance, occupying the left side of the smiling curve, with high gross profit margins and broad future space. CITIC Securities believes that companies with high core component production technology, rapid deployment capabilities and high-quality customer resources can take the lead in enjoying industry dividends.
The robot industry can explore investment opportunities from three directions: industrial chain, localization, and new categories:
Industry chain: explore investment opportunities from the perspectives of navigation and positioning modules, motion control modules, sensory interaction modules, fuselage structures, chips, batteries, etc.;
Localization: UBTECH is the leading domestic humanoid robot company, and other leaders in the field of robotics may also enter the humanoid robot market;
New categories: Before general-purpose humanoid robots can be commercialized on a large scale, in various subdivisions, it is recommended to focus on cleaning robots,dronedistribution robot, inspection robot, AMR,collaborative robot,Special robotwait.
Zheshang Securities Research Report pointed out that ChatGPT, as the top model in the AIGC field, is expected to revolutionize existing productivity tools, and its commercialization is expected to accelerate the promotion of languageAIAnd the overall significant progress in the field of AI. Human-computer interaction system is the “brain” of humanoid robots, and speech semantic analysis is the core way of human-computer interaction, which can help robots have the ability to listen, speak, understand and think.
With the gradual maturity of human-computer interaction technology, the commercialization of humanoid robots can be expected in the future.Proportion of core componentsIndustrial robotThe cost is about 70%. Compared with traditional industrial robots, humanoid robots have a greatly improved degree of freedom. It is expected to use more reducers and motors than industrial robots. Core components (reducers,servo motoretc.) demand is expected to increase significantly.
At the same time, Zheshang Securities believes that the manufacturing industry has continued to recover since 2023. PM was 50.1% in January, and further increased to 52.6% in February, a significant increase of about 2.5pct from January, which is the highest value in the past year, and will benefit in 2023. The recovery of the manufacturing industry will accelerate the development of the robot industry.
China International Finance Securities believes that the arrival of the “robot +” era is expected to drive the overall prosperity of the industrial chain. On January 19, 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Robot +” Application Action Implementation Plan, proposing that by 2025, the density of manufacturing robots will be doubled compared with 2020.service robotThe application depth and breadth of the special robot industry have been significantly improved, and the ability of robots to promote high-quality economic and social development has been significantly enhanced.
Deepen the application of “robot +” in key areas, facing the needs of social improvement and economic development, select key areas with a certain foundation, wide application coverage, and strong radiation and driving effects, focus on typical application scenarios and user needs, and carry out development from robot products, Systematic advancement of technological innovation, scene application to model promotion.
From a policy point of view, it is proposed that relevant departments and localities should take the promotion of robot applications as the key direction of scientific and technological innovation, industry planning, and industrial policies, coordinate policies, funds, and resources to support them, and increase investment in innovative applications of robots.
From the perspective of the upstream link of the industrial chain, it will support and strengthen the core technologies of the robot industry chain such as high torque density servo motors, high dynamic motion planning and control, and human-computer interaction, dig deep into and release potential application requirements, and develop advanced and applicable robots. products and system solutions.
On the whole, the “robot +” program will promote the accelerated penetration of robots in all aspects of production and life, and is expected to drive the overall prosperity of the robot industry chain.
Guotai Junan Securities
Guotai Junan Securities believes that China’s robotics industry has ushered in an inflection point in demand, and is expected to gradually shift from copying to technology leadership, from domestic substitution to overseas expansion.
China is the largest and fastest-growing robot market in the world. From 2001 to 2022, the sales volume of robots increased from 700 units to 303,000 units (sales scale was 8.7 billion US dollars), with a compound growth rate of 33.5%.
2017 is a watershed in China’s robotics industry. Before 2017, it was the domestic substitution stage. Domestic robotics companies mainly obtained the market at a lower cost through imitation. Since 2017, combined with technological changes such as AI deep learning, 3D vision, and force control, China’s robotics industry has gradually become a market leader, with a compound sales growth rate of 23.1% from 2017 to 2022.
Demographic Change, Manufacturingdigital transformation, China’s new energy industry has exploded and led the world, and Chinese robots may be able to copy the development path of Japan’s robot industry. In addition to enjoying external dividends, the continuous progress of core components and technologies such as motion control (including servo control, reducer, etc.), autonomous positioning and navigation, and human-computer interaction are decisive factors for the rapid development of the robot industry.
Guotai Junan Securities also pointed out that the manufacturing industryDigitizingTransformation, the rise of the new energy industry, and the acceleration of import substitution of industrial robots. Looking back at the take-off of the Japanese robot industry, automobiles are the largest downstream of industrial robots. The output of automobiles rose from 5.81 million units to 13.49 million units in 1970-1990. The speed is 25%, and the two major robot companies Fanuc and Yaskawa have taken over the two major processes of automobile stamping and welding.
In 2020, China’s new energy industry will explode and lead the world, and it may be able to replicate the development path of Japan’s robot industry. New energy is an emerging industry. Enterprises are willing to cooperate with domestic robots to explore standardized processes. The accumulation of technical capabilities has enabled domestic manufacturers to meet the needs of customers in industrial scenarios. Domestic industrial robots have been able to catch up with the opportunity, and the order volume, delivery quality, and repurchase rate are benign. During the epidemic in 2020, the import of foreign brands was blocked, and domestic brands with better delivery capabilities seized the opportunity for development.
AVIC Securities stated that the country focuses on typical application scenarios and user demand systems to promote industry development, and strives to expand the depth and breadth of robot applications, which will catalyze industry product upgrades, technology iterations, application innovations, and market expansion. As the epidemic gradually subsides and consumption recovers , State support, it is expected that in the next 3-5 years, the robot industry as a whole will usher in a new round of business cycle.
The acceleration of aging has laid a foundation for the long-term development of robots. There are high-speed growth opportunities in related links and subdivisions of the industrial chain. The localization process of industrial robots is accelerating. Local parts and body manufacturers continue to make breakthroughs to support the healthy development of the overall industry. The demand for industrial robots in this round is expected The inflection point may appear in the first half of 2023.
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